Futuristprimer engagement framework with Nigerian government based on general knowledge of the Nigerian context and international practice.

The reforms undertaken so far, namely subsidy removal, foreign exchange unification and the tax overhaul, were necessary, but they are only half the job. The central challenge now is converting macroeconomic stabilisation into real gains for households and into stronger productive capacity. Our work is to organise the next phase around five connected priorities, beginning with making stabilisation durable.

Government should focus on locking in macroeconomic stability. That means close coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, an end to central bank deficit financing, and a published medium-term debt strategy that anchors inflation expectations. Much of the current inflation, especially in food, comes from the supply side, so interest rates alone will not solve it. Spending on transport, storage and market bottlenecks will do more. The foreign exchange market also needs deeper liquidity and transparent reserve reporting, and ad hoc administrative controls should be avoided because they deter the very investors the reforms were meant to attract.

Alongside stabilisation, the government must protect the households bearing the cost of adjustment. The most practical step is to consolidate the many cash transfer programmes under a single National Social Register linked to the national identity number, with payments made digitally and a working grievance mechanism. The poorest households, pregnant women and food-insecure communities should be reached first. Subsidy savings should be ring-fenced in an audited account with quarterly public reporting, so Nigerians can see where the money goes.

On revenue, the priority is legitimacy as much as collection. The contested tax laws should be reviewed by an independent technical or legislative process and the final text published clearly, because taxpayer trust is itself an economic asset. Beyond that, the country needs a single tax-collection window, a common taxpayer identifier and an agreed schedule of federal, state and local levies to end multiple taxation. Revenue can be widened without raising rates by using e-invoicing, matching data from banks, customs and land registries, and conducting risk-based audits, while reviewing tax incentives that cost more than they deliver.

The deeper work lies in the productive sectors. In power, the Electricity Act 2023 should be implemented fully by enabling state-level markets, moving distribution companies toward cost-reflective tariffs with targeted protection for low-income users, prioritising metering and resolving legacy sector debt. In agriculture, the focus should be on reducing post-harvest losses through storage, aggregation and rural roads, supported by input finance, credit guarantees and extension services, concentrating on value chains with export or import-substitution potential. In oil and gas, gas-to-power and reliable domestic supply deserve priority, and industrial clusters with shared power, water and logistics will serve manufacturers better than blanket incentives. Small businesses and the digital economy would benefit from credit guarantee schemes, collateral registries for movable assets, broadband investment and clear fintech regulation.

Finally, none of this works without security and state capacity. If decentralised policing or forest guards are pursued, they should come with clear command structures, vetting, training and oversight to prevent abuse and politicisation, alongside intelligence-led operations and livelihood support for affected communities. A small Presidential Delivery Unit with a handful of public targets, monthly dashboards and named accountable officers would improve implementation, as would open contracting and published project-level budget data. Sustained investment in primary health care, basic education and nutrition should anchor all of this, since these offer some of the highest returns on public spending.

In terms of sequencing, the first six months should deliver quick wins: consolidated cash transfers, clarity on the tax laws, a power tariff and metering plan, and the launch of the delivery unit. Over the following six to twenty-four months, the focus should shift to the single tax window, agricultural pilots, state electricity markets and a security reform framework. The longer horizon of two to five years is where industrial clusters, human capital outcomes and debt reduction should show results. The main risks are reform fatigue and social unrest, weak implementation capacity at the state level, policy reversals and security shocks that disrupt farming and investment. Progress should be tracked through headline and food inflation, the share of households receiving transfers, the tax-to-GDP ratio, hours of power supply, post-harvest losses, foreign investment projects reaching operation, security incidents and displacement, and primary health care use.